Gambling on Football Cards

With this first post, I am going to try to intertwine the two things that this blog is about: football and football cards. Back in the old days, sportscards were actually collected and profiting off of them wasn’t really thought of as an option. Now, it’s really the complete opposite. The amount of “true” collectors have dwindled and the “investors” have skyrocketed. I hear all the time, “oh my god, the hobby is dying!” Well, that is the farthest thing from the truth. If anything, it’s thriving and at the bare minimum, it’s stagnant. But I truly believe it’s thriving. People, who have never collected cards, have begun to see the profit that could be made in this hobby and have thrown their hat into the ring. It’s essentially gambling when it comes down to it. Because of that, there are significant upsides, but there are downsides as well.

Lately, we’ve seen Drew Brees rookie shit skyrocket. Before that, it was Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Soon, it could be Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers. Investors have made that happen and while it’s a good thing for the hobby, it’s a bad thing for collectors like me (although that stuff doesn’t really interest me). Now that people have seen the money that could be made with those guys, they’re hoping to get in on the ground floor with guys such as Pat Mahomes (or Patty Christ), Carson Wentz and Jared Goff, who have all been drafted in the past couple of years. However, before that, we had players like Jimmy Garoppolo and Derek Carr and before that, Colin Kaepernick.

When Kaepernick busted onto the scene, his big cards, namely his Contenders and National Treasures rookie autos, sold for outrageous amounts. Collectors, investors, and even analysts and scouts, deemed him as the next big thing. However, when given a full offseason to prepare, teams figured his style out and were soon able to stop him. With that, his performance dipped and so did his card prices. Investors, who had spent thousands, banked on him to become the next great QB, were suddenly out a shit-ton of money. That’s the danger of investing. You need to know when to buy and you need to know when to sell. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn’t. For every Kaepernick or Derek Carr, there’s 20 Geno Smith’s, Jake Locker’s, Nick Foles’, Blaine Gabbert’s, EJ Manuel’s, Brock Osweiler’s, Sam Bradford’s, Blake Bortles’, and Johnny Manziel’s waiting in line. You could even lump Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota into that category because neither has fully lived up to the lofty expectations that were set before them. Although they weren’t on big market teams, people still bought them at a premium, hoping that they would eventually become All-Pro’s and Super Bowl-winning QB’s. Obviously, that hasn’t happened and it doesn’t appear it will any time soon, although hope isn’t completely lost.

This year, we saw 5 QB’s chosen in the first round — Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. While all have had their moments so far this year, they are all still a work in progress. Maybe the next Peyton or Roethlisberger is in this class, only time will tell. But that doesn’t mean that their cards are cheap. People have seemingly bought into all 5 of these guys in some shape or form, and praying that at least 1 will work out in their favor. A player that is missing from this list is Nick Mullens, who essentially came out of nowhere and is currently the 49ers’ starting QB. Because he came out of nowhere, he doesn’t have any cards (outside of Panini Instant). But because he’s starting for one of the NFL’s premier franchises, you can bet your bottom dollar that whenever his first card comes out, people are going to go batshit crazy and hope that he becomes the next Kurt Warner or some shit. Even though I highly, highly doubt that, it won’t stop people from pouring money into his cards. Maybe he will become a serviceable starter, or maybe he will become just another random fluke in the NFL history books. Time will tell but his stamp on the hobby has already been written and he doesn’t even have any cards out yet.

It all comes back to gambling. In 2002, David Carr became the #1 pick by the Houston Texans. His cards were scorching hot and it was unbelievable how much hype was built into him. However, his career never got going, whether you wanna blame his offensive line or just chalk it up to him being a mediocre QB. At the time, his #1 card was his SP Authentic jersey/auto. From January 2003 to September 2004, there were at least 53 sales of that card selling for more than $250 — the very vast majority being over $300. The card even hit the $500 plateau multiple times and one even sold for $618.08 on August 4, 2003. Do you know what the last one sold for? $9.50 on Sept. 25, 2018. Not only did that card dip, it fell harder than Lamar Odom at a brothel. It all comes back to knowing when to buy and when to sell.

Let’s look at one of Colin Kapernick’s premiere sets — 2011 National Treasures. Although there are quite a few subsets, there are at least 114 different sales that a card from that set sold for at least $500. The 1/1 shield/auto sold for a whopping $6,800 on December 24, 2013. $6,800!!!! Because of his on-field performance and his off-the-field circumstances, that card isn’t worth close to what it sold for then. The main card in the set, his jersey/auto #/99, topped out at $1,100 (a BGS 9.5) on June 6, 2013. The most recent sale? A #/25 version, obviously rarer than #/99, sold for $79 on October 23, 2018. It’s amazing the differences that can be made in just a handful of years. Shit happens but you can guarantee yourself that a lot of people lost a lot of money.

Now, let’s take a look at the other side of the coin. Take a trip with me back to 2005. Alex Smith is the #1 pick out of Utah, to the 49ers. The other top QB, Cal’s Aaron Rodgers, slips all the way down near the bottom of the first round to the Packers. That’s all fine and dandy, but the Packers already have someone named Brett Favre at QB. What was the point? Well, the Packers played it perfectly. They had Rodgers sit on the bench, groomed him and when Favre eventually decided to retire (the first time), here comes Rodgers. But during that time watching #4 on the bench, Rodgers’ cards really didn’t sell for that much. In the months leading up to the 2006 season, Rodgers’ 2005 Contenders rookie auto historically sold between $75-110, and throughout the season, many even dipped below $60. Looking back at that now, it is absolutely absurd. As of 2018, this card is perhaps is most highly-coveted card and collectors and investors alike are throwing all types of cash at this card. A BGS 8 just recently sold for $1,525 on December 15. A BGS 8.5 sold for $2,507 on November 28, and a BGS 9 sold for $2,874 on November 25. That last “raw” version sold for $2,300 on September 9. That is a gigantic jump from just 12 years when you could buy this card for less than $75. Boy, if I had a time machine. It wasn’t complete “overnight” success like Mahomes, but a several-thousand-percent increase in 12 years is nothing short of astounding. It’s not just limited to just his Contenders rookie autos, but all of his rookie shit has seen a humongous increase as well. That’s cool if you saw that coming over a decade ago and made some good money off of Rodgers, but unfortunately, for every Rodgers, there’s 25 other players that are the complete opposite. With the money being thrown around right now, there will likely never be another player that will follow the same trajectory as Rodgers or Brady. That will not stop people from attempting to make a quick buck, though. 

Dak Prescott is another player that has seen his prices skyrocket. A 4th-round pick in 2016, not a lot of people gave him a chance because you know, the Cowboys had Tony Romo at QB. But after an injury to the starter, Dak was thrust into action and he produced solid numbers. This caused his cards to skyrocket, as well. Soon, people were jumping on eBay quicker than a cop on a donut, hoping to find good prices on Dak Prescott cards. He became the new hot commodity, sometimes even more so than Philadelphia’s Carson Wentz and his Dallas teammate, Ezekiel Elliott. His card prices soared as he led Dallas to a playoff birth. Once Contenders came out, people’s checkbooks took a big hit. You couldn’t find any cheaper than $200-300. Hell, even the 1/1 Championship Ticket auto (a PSA 9) sold for $7,101 on August 24, 2017. The cracked ice /23 versions continually hit the $2,000+ mark, easily. Some regular base versions were even hitting the $1,000 plateau. Since then, he has obviously not led the Cowboys to a Super Bowl win or appearance, which has caused his prices to be nowhere close to what they were in their heyday. The most recent sale was $162.51 on December 9 and although that’s not David Carr-esque, it is still a significant dip. But if he does manage to bring the Cowboys a Super Bowl victory, you can best believe that the card will hit four figures once more.

The newest player to become the hobby darling is Pat Mahomes. In his first year as the starter, he’s been nothing short of phenomenal and has led Kansas City to a potential #1 seed in the playoffs. Because he has been so scorching hot on the field, his cards have as well. A 2017 National Treasures RPA Black #1/5 just recently sold for an incredible $22,100. Absolutely mind-blowing. That card might’ve been bought for a couple hundred bucks when it came out but because he has been tremendous this year, it’s shot up to an exorbitant amount. There have been 8 Mahomes 2017 National Treasures cards that have reached the $10,000 mark. 30 have hit at least $5,000. Personally, I think it’s dumb, but people are free to do whatever they want with their money. If they wanna go out and spend $5,000 on hookers & cocaine, then by all means, go for it. But it doesn’t mean it’s smart. With Patty Christ cards being the way they are now, people are essentially banking on him to not only be the greatest QB of this generation, but the best QB of all-time. There is a very, very, substantially low chance of that happening, but people seem to believe he could. To quote the great wordsmith Lloyd Christmas, “so you’re telling me there’s a chance?” There is. But I sincerely hope these people have a backup plan in place in case Mahomes becomes a one-year wonder (Nick Foles rings a bell when saying that). I am not diminishing Mahomes’ work, but good god almighty, there is just so much money being thrown at him. Maybe he’ll become great, maybe he won’t, but I wouldn’t completely mortgage my future on it.

Unfortunately, there is another downside to investing in players, and it’s the one that pisses me off the most. It’s also the main reason I don’t get into this shit. I’m just going to use this as an example: Let’s say Sam Darnold goes out this weekend and throws for 426 yards, 5 TD’s and completes 84% of his passes. After the game, a buyer snatched up the Prizm rookie auto you have listed for $200. You ship it, buyer gets the card, done deal. The following week, Darnold completely shits the bed, throws for 92 yards, 0 TD’s and 4 INT’s. Guess what it is waiting in your inbox Monday morning? A refund message from the buyer. It gets worse: the buyer can simply return the card because he “doesn’t like it”, according to eBay’s shitty rules. All of a sudden, you’re out time and money because the asshole that bought your card couldn’t sell it for a higher amount after Darnold’s crappy performance. While you get screwed in the end, the buyer gets off completely scot-free with no repercussions, even though his sole purpose was to make a quick buck. Unfortunately, that is just the way it is and there is absolutely nothing you can really do about it. So not only is there the potentiality of losing out when the timing is wrong, there is also the potentiality of the example above. It’s a risky game to play. 

Although investors have brought a great amount of money and spotlight onto this hobby, they have also brought significant downsides to it as well. I guess there is one good thing about all of this — it’s a lot worse in basketball. Only time will tell if this trend continues, but I don’t see it going away any time soon. People will continue to want to chase the “next” Tom Brady. The “next” Peyton Manning. The “next” Drew Brees. But what some people fail to realize is that there will never be a next Brady, Peyton or Brees. There is only 1 Brady. 1 Peyton. 1 Brees. There will never be another but that doesn’t and won’t stop people from buying.

More money will continue to be thrown into this hobby and although it is ultimately good for the hobby, it hurts the “true” collectors in the end. For those of you that invest, I wish you the best of luck and I hope you don’t lose your ass when the person you’re investing in becomes the next NFL flameout. May the cardboard gods look down upon you.